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Global Images Ukraine | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesFor Michael Clarke, a defense analyst and former director-general of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, there's a risk that the first phase of the counteroffensive, designed to probe Russia's defenses, takes too long. Global Images Ukraine | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesKonrad Muzyka, a military intelligence specialist and president of Rochan Consulting, said "the weather has always been the factor" for Kyiv. But Kyiv says its forces are conducting counteroffensive actions in at least three areas and are operating against a backdrop of increased Russian offensive operations. Ukraine's defense ministry claims that its forces have liberated around 210 square kilometers (81 square miles) of occupied territory since June. Anatolii Stepanov | Afp | Getty Images
Persons: , Michael Clarke, Clarke, Konrad Muzyka, Muzyka, Yuriy Sak, Sak, Anatolii Stepanov Organizations: 110th Brigade, Territorial Defense, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Military, Royal United Services Institute, CNBC, Rochan Consulting, Kyiv, Afp Locations: Novodarivka, Luhansk, Ukraine, Kharkiv, Kherson, Ukrainian, Bakhmut, Donetsk, Russian, Russia, Vuhledar, Yuriy, Siversk
How Russia’s Offensive Ran Aground
  + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Josh Holder | Marco Hernandez | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +15 min
But within months of the invasion, Russia’s rapid advances ran out of steam, even as it narrowed its ambitions and focused on eastern Ukraine. No Russian gains No Russian gains No Russian gainsIn September 2022 Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in September 2022. No Russian gains No Russian gains No Russian gainsIn October 2022 Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in October 2022. Russia captured the small salt-mining town. Kurdiumivka Soledar Kurdiumivka Soledar Russia captured the small salt-mining town.
This is in part because of beavers building dams, with nobody stopping them due to the war. The animals are unwittingly helping Kyiv by building dams that keep the ground marshy and impassable, a military spokesman told the agency. This helps Ukraine by making it less likely that an attack could come via Belarus, which borders Ukraine not far north of the capital Kyiv. Ukrainian officials had warned that Russia may wage an offensive through its ally Belarus into a region of Ukraine called Volyn. Its spokesman, Serhiy Khominskyi, praised the beavers, which he told Reuters were more working unimpeded, unlike in other years.
Ukrainian officials have warned of a new looming Russian assault, with Belarus to the north named as one possible launchpad, as Moscow seeks to revive its faltering invasion. Russia and its close ally Belarus have beefed up their joint military grouping in Belarus and plan to hold joint aviation drills there from next Monday. Across the border on Thursday, the deputy commander of what Moscow calls its "special military operation" inspected Russian forces in Belarus. Analyst Konrad Muzyka, who runs defence consultancy Rochan Consulting, told Reuters that although a Russian troop build-up could be observed in Belarus, an attack into north-west Ukraine from Belarus would face enormous difficulties. "This makes it easy for Ukrainian forces to channel the movement of Russian forces into specific areas where they would be shelled by artillery."
The new commander of Russian forces in Ukraine said Tuesday that his troops in the country’s south were facing “a rather difficult” situation after a Ukrainian counteroffensive pushed them back and threatened their supply lines. “Our further plans and actions regarding the city of Kherson itself will depend on the emerging military tactical situation,” Gen. Sergei Surovikin said. “Difficult decisions could not be ruled out,” he added in a rare interview with Russian state television that came not long after he was installed by the Kremlin. Ukraine has been laying the ground for a counteroffensive there for months, striking key bridges and military infrastructure, while also advancing in the east. “The Russian military has been rumored to be pushing for a withdrawal for weeks, with some pushback from the Kremlin, and we may be seeing a reversal of this policy,” he said.
But the Kremlin still doesn’t seem confident that its military can hold back a Ukrainian counteroffensive ahead of winter. The head of the Moscow-appointed regional administration, Vladimir Saldo, without using the word “evacuation,” asked Moscow Thursday to welcome families from the Kherson region that want “to protect themselves” from what he described as constant Ukrainian shelling. The Kremlin promptly agreed to support such efforts, with officials in the southern Russian region of Rostov saying the first arrivals were expected Friday, the state news agency Tass reported. Kyiv has been striking Russian military sites and installations in the region for several months, according to its defense officials, as it prepared for its long-touted counteroffensive there. “If Kherson falls, there will be a moment in which potentially there may be further breakthroughs by Ukraine,” Mevin said.
Can Ukraine Break Through Again?
  + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Marco Hernandez | Denise Lu | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +7 min
After mostly defending for months, Ukraine is now dictating the war, choosing where it wants to press new offensives. After mostly defending for months, Ukraine is now dictating the war, choosing where it wants to press new offensives. But even if it helps, the “partial mobilization” could take months to change the battlefield, giving Ukraine time to push forward. Now that Ukraine has recaptured Izium, Ukrainian forces are freed up to attack Russian forces to the east. Now that Ukraine has recaptured Izium, Ukrainian forces are freed up to attack Russian forces to the east.
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